2022 is the year when various plans will be implemented. China's economy will gradually return to the normal growth track under the "triple pressure" and steady growth regulation. As a major carbon emitter in the manufacturing industry, under the constraints of policies such as capacity and output reduction, dual control of energy consumption and low-carbon development, the steel output may decline slightly, and the steel export volume may change from increase to decrease.
Recently, the price of iron ore has continued to rise, and the phenomenon of "not light in off-season" once appeared in the market. According to the observation of the reporter of Securities Daily, since November 19, 2021, the iron ore disk has hit a phased low and started a rebound trend. As of January 13, 2022, the iron ore 2205 contract closed at 726 yuan / ton (RMB), with a cumulative increase of 41.25 percent .
"Domestic iron ore enterprises still have a certain profit margin at the price of about 120 / ton. If it is reduced to about 90 / ton, some iron ore enterprises will suffer losses, which is not conducive to the development and utilization of domestic iron ore resources," the relevant personnel of Hegang resources told the Securities Daily
Nyersanyag-utánpótlás az acélipari vállalatoknál
Emelje fel a vasérc árakat
Generally speaking, as the iron and steel industry enters the traditional off-season, the price of iron ore usually falls as a raw material. Therefore, the recent phenomenon of "not light in off-season" of iron ore has aroused discussion in the industry.
A person from a large iron and steel enterprise in Shandong told the Securities Daily: "recently, an important factor in the rapid rise of iron ore prices is the recovery of iron ore demand. The recent resumption of production by steel enterprises and the replenishment of raw materials before the Spring Festival have promoted the rapid rebound of iron ore prices."
A bennfentesek véleménye szerint a vasérc árakat nagyban befolyásolják az acélárak.
"The rise and fall of iron ore prices mainly depends on the relationship between market supply and demand. At the same time, there is a game between the profit space of iron ore and the profit space of steel mills. Steel prices rise, and the prices of raw materials upstream such as coke and iron ore also rise," He Gang resources told reporters
A vasérc árának emelkedését nemcsak a piaci kereslet befolyásolja, hanem a szállítási költségek emelkedése is.
"The increase in shipping costs can be regarded as a factor in the rise in iron ore prices. Shipping costs rose sharply in the third and fourth quarters of last year." The above River steel resources related personnel said.
A bennfentesek véleménye szerint az acélgyárak utánpótlási keresletének hatása a vasérc árára rövid-távon. Hosszú távon a vasérc ára korrigálódhat.
"In 2021, the Platts index of iron ore rose as high as nearly 240 / ton, and then fell all the way below 90 / ton. At present, iron ore maintains a relative balance. Steel mills should be acceptable to the current iron ore price." "The off-season is not light, which is actually the result of the market game. The ideal state is to maintain it at about 90 / ton to 100 / ton. However, the ore price itself is supported by the relationship between supply and demand. If this price can continue, it shows that the judgment of steel enterprises on the end demand, including infrastructure and real estate industry, is relatively optimistic."
Az acélipar termelési korlátozásokkal néz szembe
Vasérc ár vagy sokk visszahívás
The state's regulation of crude steel output will also have an impact on iron ore prices. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the Ministry of industry and information technology has continuously put forward requirements to reduce the output of crude steel. The steel output is expected to decrease by 35 million tons year-on-year in 2021. Recently, Zhang Longqiang, Secretary of the Party committee and President of the Metallurgical Industry Information Standards Research Institute, said that from the practice in 2021, the reduction of crude steel production is conducive to restraining the excessive rise of imported iron ore prices, promoting the continuous improvement of industry profits and the improvement of industrial concentration. It is necessary for the iron and steel industry to continue to regulate the output of crude steel in 2022.
Ezzel kapcsolatban a Lange Vas- és Acélkutató Központ előrejelzése szerint a hazai vas- és acélpiac 2022-ben széles körű sokkot mutathat, a sokktartomány fokozatosan szűkül, az acél átlagára pedig lefelé mozdul el.
A person from a large iron and steel enterprise in Shandong told the Securities Daily: "in the first quarter of 2021, the operating rate of iron and steel enterprises is very high and the production capacity is very large, but it is expected that the production capacity of the industry will decline significantly in the second half of the year."
Hogyan fog teljesíteni a vasérc jövőbeli piaca a korlátozott északi termelési szezon beköszöntével?
Wang Guoqing, director of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, said: "with the slight shortage of iron ore demand in the later stage and the continuous pressure on port inventory, iron ore prices may face shock correction."
A Haitong futures azt közölte, hogy a hírek szerint az észak-kínai és más helyeken működő acélművek január végén korlátozni kezdik a termelést, és az acélgyárak utánpótlása véget ér. A fesztivál után az acélgyárak főként saját készleteiket fogyasztják, az azonnali tranzakciók pedig lehangoltak. Több tényező hatására nincs elegendő tér a vasérc árának további emelkedéséhez.
Az Everbright futures úgy véli, hogy a keresleti oldalról néhány acélgyár továbbra is folytatja a termelést. A Tavaszi Fesztivál közelében a szezonon kívüli fogyasztás hatására nagy nyomás nehezedik az acélkereslet folyamatos növekedésére, és a vasérckikötői készlet magas szinten áll. A közeljövőben várhatóan ingadozni fog a vasérc ára.
The above-mentioned person from a large iron and steel enterprise in Shandong said: "iron ore price is the global market price. In addition to the demand of domestic iron and steel enterprises, we should also take into account the demand growth of the United States, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions, especially the growth of iron ore demand in the Indian market. India will be the main incremental market in the world in 2021."
Vale is the world's largest producer and exporter of iron ore. The rainstorm weather in Brazil has affected the transportation and operation of some mining areas in the southeast and south of vale, CSN and other mines. With the rise of iron ore prices, will the company increase its shipments to the Chinese market in 2022?
In this regard, Vale told the Securities Daily: "the sales volume, shipment volume and distribution of iron ore depend on factors such as sales strategy, quality and availability of product portfolio, market demand, iron ore price and premium."
"In 2020, 67 percent of Vale's iron ore and pellet products will be sold to China. Vale's guiding output of iron ore in 2021 is 315 million tons to 320 million tons, and it is expected that Vale's output of iron ore will reach 320 million tons to 335 million tons in 2022," the vale source said
